Arya News - Donald Trump has perfected the art of the peace deal – at least at a ceremonial level.
Donald Trump has perfected the art of the peace deal – at least at a ceremonial level.
He claims to have solved eight wars, with only Volodymyr Zelensky’s apparent intransigence denying him his ninth and biggest breakthrough.
But there is a difference between proclaiming peace and securing it, as Neville Chamberlain discovered, and several of the US president’s deals are already fraying.
The overnight collapse of a truce he brokered between Thailand and Cambodia is just the latest example of what some critics call a triumph of style over substance.
Such criticism is partly unfair. Through intimidation, inducement and force of personality, he has marshalled US power to calm hostilities and revive stalled peace processes, a fact many participants acknowledge.
Yet dragging antagonists to the table because you are bigger and more powerful only works to a point. Consider Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Last week, the leaders of both countries were in Washington to sign a formal peace deal at the Donald J Trump Institute for Peace, which the US president had just renamed after himself. Standing between Félix Tshisekedi, the Congolese president, and Paul Kagame, his Rwandan rival, Mr Trump hailed “an amazing day”, claiming he had wrought a “great miracle” .
Paul Kagame (left), the president of Rwanda, Donald Trump, and Felix Tshisekedi, the DRC president in Washington, DC on Thursday - Getty Images North America
But neither African leader would shake hands or make eye contact. “Look at the way they love each other,” Mr Trump quipped. And even as he proclaimed peace, fighting continued in Congo’s benighted east, with Rwanda-backed rebels launching a fresh offensive, deepening a crisis that has killed thousands of people and forced more than a million more to flee this year.
Core disputes remain unresolved
As elsewhere, analysts say Mr Trump has used his muscle to secure initial ceasefires but paid less attention to addressing the underlying causes. Permanent peace, therefore, remains elusive.
In some cases, violence continues despite the ceasefires. Hundreds have died in Gaza since Mr Trump announced a truce in October, with each side accusing the other of repeated violations – although diplomats still hope permanent talks might begin soon .
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is entering its second month, although both sides have repeatedly accused each other of violating the truce - Evan Vucci/Reuters
Even apparently settled conflicts, such as the 30-year war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, remain vulnerable because core disputes are unresolved.
Perhaps this is unsurprising. Not even a president with Mr Trump’s self-assurance can stay across eight knotty peace processes at once.
Trump struggles to restrain the stronger power
Early dividends are fading as Washington struggles to restrain the stronger party in each conflict – Rwanda in the African Great Lakes, Thailand in Southeast Asia.
Mr Trump helped halt clashes across the Thai-Cambodian border in July by threatening to suspend trade talks. But, by not addressing where the 500-mile frontier should lie, tariff threats have lost their force, particularly with Bangkok. Asked on Monday about the peace deal Mr Trump brokered, Thailand’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, replied: “I don’t remember that anymore.”
A Thai soldier died and several others were wounded after clashes near the Cambodian border - Royal Thai Army
Failing to address grievances is one hallmark of Mr Trump’s diplomacy. Another, critics say, is that he gives traditional US allies the impression he is backing their often militarily weaker rivals: Cambodia over Thailand, Pakistan over India, Congo over Rwanda.
Not always. He has also favoured stronger powers – Israel over Iran and Hamas and increasingly Russia over Ukraine and Europe.
Yet riding roughshod over relationships Washington has long cultivated carries risks.
Baffling logic of alienating India and Thailand
The gains are uncertain. Congo has critical minerals aplenty and has dangled mining deals to win US favour, but its chronic instability and corruption make reputable US investment unlikely.
Bringing Russia in from the cold might unlock its £1.5-trillion economy to American firms at the expense of European rivals, but Vladimir Putin remains a risky prospect.
And arguably, Mr Trump’s peacemaking efforts in Asia are the least rational. Ending wars in the Middle East makes sense for Washington: It removes distractions and allows focus on regions that directly challenge US interests. There is even a cold logic in courting Russia if it can be prised from Beijing in a “reverse Nixon”.
But many diplomats are baffled by the logic of alienating India and Thailand – states central to countering China, the only power capable of challenging Washington’s global reach.
Cambodia and Pakistan have their attractions for Mr Trump. Both have cannily nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Both are long-standing allies of Beijing, giving Washington a chance to engineer a realignment.
Yet if that realignment pushes India and Thailand closer to China, it is hard to see how the benefits outweigh the costs – reinforcing the impression that Mr Trump’s peacemaking serves his own interests more than his country’s.
Try full access to The Telegraph free today. Unlock their award-winning website and essential news app, plus useful tools and expert guides for your money, health and holidays.