Arya News - Bitcoin is struggling to hold to mid-$80,000 levels, while gold nears record highs, though the real outlier of the three is silver with its multiple double-digit gains over the past four months, relative performance of the assets show.
Historically, Bitcoin has often been framed as a competitor to gold and is likened sometimes to "digital gold", during periods of heightened macro uncertainty. This has allowed Bitcoin to behave as a risk-on asset correlated with equities during periods of growth, and as a safe haven for investors during difficult times. But the macro headwinds of 2025, triggered by elevated real interest rates, has resulted in a liquidation of equities, particularly tech stocks, turning Bitcoin into a poor-performing risk asset unable to make the transition to a safe haven. Although the 10-year US Treasury yield has softened slightly to around 4.15% in mid-December from its January highs, it remains high enough to pressure non-yielding speculative assets like Bitcoin. Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index has slipped below the psychological 100-point mark, hovering around 98.10. While a weaker dollar typically supports Bitcoin, the digital asset failed to capitalize on the dollar"s decline, remaining tied to Nasdaq volatility and the AI-fatigue seen in big tech. As such, after a brief hold at above $90,000, Bitcoin is again exhibiting vulnerability of the past two months, hovering at around $87,000 in Wednesday’s early trading in Asia. At that level, its month-to-date loss stands at 3%, adding to its cumulative 21% drop over the prior two months. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is down 7%. Gold, in contrast, is closing in on record highs, with futures of the precious metal hovering at around $4,380 an ounce while its spot price holds at over $4,318, compared to all-time highs of $4,398 and $4,381.60, respectively. Both gold futures and spot gold are up 2% for December after a cumulative 25% gain over four previous months. Year-to-date, spot and gold futures are up 64% each. But silver has outstripped both rivals in recent months, with futures trading at over $66 an ounce and the spot price at above $65. With these prices, silver has decisively broken its 45-year psychological ceiling of $50 an ounce and is trading as a unique hybrid of industrial essential and monetary hedge. In three of the past four months, silver has recorded double-digit gains, resulting in year-to-date returns of 125% for futures and 128% in the spot market. Davis noted that silver’s critical role in the global energy transition, thanks to the production of solar panels, electric vehicles and high-tech electronics, including AI data centers, has made the metal almost indispensable. The combination of record industrial use and constrained supply is causing silver inventories to plummet, creating a classic "squeeze" and driving prices vertically, he added.